SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT &
EXPERIENTIAL FUTURES
Strategic Foresight
The essential skill for 21st-century leadership.
Used to develop coherent and future-facing insights for organizational action.
Scenario Development
Used to develop business and organizational strategy within the constraints of critical uncertainties. If we consider what could happen, the more likely we are to deal with what does happen.
The process occurs in four steps:
1. Understand the trends and driving forces of the problem set.
2. Identify critical uncertainties; issues most affecting and unlikely to change when considering the problem.
3. Develop plausible scenarios using 2x2 matrix and use critical uncertainties as a guide for imaginative inquiry.
4. Discuss implications of four possible futures on the organization and develop a strategy with an awareness of potential futures.
Experiential Futures
"With experiential futures, we are paradoxically creating real memories of hypothetical experiences" - Stuart Candy
A method of design that creates thematic emersion for participants to bring a 'felt sense' of a potential future. Experiences are created with a focus on setting, scenario and, situation, as a 'new now' is created from signals and trends which indict a potential future. The outcome of these immersions will vary; mindsets shifts may be evoked, new insights into how to design and create an alternative future may be discovered, or research for strategy development is collected.
